I just want to show you something that might give you a sense of how the current split between the centre-right parties might help the Conservative Party survive and return the centre right into power again.
Here’s a chart from Electoral calculus which gives the current share of votes and predicted seats.
Such an outcome would mean that the Conservatives, already at a low base would lose more seats but not as many as Labour are projected to lose. In fact, Labour would risk finishing bottom in terms of UK wide parties. The leader of the opposition would be the Green Party leader.
How it helps the centre-right is obvious. A Reform/Conservative coalition would have a majority of over 100 and given the closeness of the result and the potential size of the Conservative Party, whilst Reform would be the larger party in the coalition, the Tories would have good reason not to consider themselves as the junior partner. Further I suspect that a new government would like to have senior ministers with proper front bench experience in cabinet, ministerial roles or shadow positions in opposition. There would be a need to reassure the markets and also the wider world at what could potentially be a continuing time of economic and political instability around the world.
Why it specifically helps the centre right, is because it essentially puts back together the electoral coalition that the Theresa May and Boris Johnson put together and which Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak essentially lost. Because much of that coalition includes those former red wall voters who lent their votes to Boris to get Brexit done and who then felt betrayed by the Conservatives, they are not the kinds of people who are likely to return to the Conservative fold soon.
It additionally would suit the centre right, I would argue to have the Zac Polanski as the leader of the opposition. That would put the radical left in the lime-light, centre stage, just as they were under Jeremy Corbyn and I’m not convinced that the radical left actually like that kind of attention and scrutiny. The 2033 General Election will then potentially become framed as the clear choice between low tax/strong defence and high tax/anti NATO.
Obviously we are a long way out from a General Election still so we cannot predict what will happen in 2029. However, the current state of affairs may be working better for the Conservatives than has been assumed.
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Note that my aim when commenting on party politics in this kind of way is not to take sides but rather to offer analysis on the state of the parties for general interest. I am intending to include an article soon looking at Labour’s options.
Faithroots 