Where is COVID-19 going?

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This is a question that pastors and church leaders will be asking as we head into 2022 and approach the 2nd anniversary of the pandemic being declared. We want to know what will happen in terms of the risk of illness, hospitalisation, and death so that we can help our congregations prepare for what might… Continue reading Where is COVID-19 going?

COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

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I’ve argued in recent posts that the Christmas period would leave us a little blind as to what is happening in terms of the Omicron variant.  The optimist in me saw some signs both from the data here and what we’d seen happen in South Africa that the wave might be slowing down going into… Continue reading COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

What might 2022 have in store for us?

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Here are some predictions about what the New Year might have in store for us.  I’m not saying these will all definitely happen but it might be interesting to look back at the end of the year and see how many I did get right. COVID19 I expect this year to be when the pandemic… Continue reading What might 2022 have in store for us?

Why we should focus on NHS surge capacity not new restrictions

When we became alert to the new Omicron variant, I argued that our immediate focus should not be on attempting to impose new restrictions. This was not because I didn’t think that the new variant definitely wouldn’t be a significant problem for us.  At that time, we had little data to go on at all.… Continue reading Why we should focus on NHS surge capacity not new restrictions

Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

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I wanted to try and visualise the challenge facing decision makers over the next few days/weeks as the Government attempts to decide what to do about the Omicron variant if anything. I thought the best way to do it might be to give you a simplified model. This isn’t as high powered as the types… Continue reading Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

Just in from Nineveh …

Reading this article by Fraser Nelson about his conversation with a SAGE advisor and seeing responses like the one below reminded me of a recent discovery. Archaeologists in Nineveh came across a stone tablet reporting events following Jonah’s visit to the City. The text says: One sceptical wise man went out of the city to… Continue reading Just in from Nineveh …

COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

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I’ve been following the cases in South Africa and the headlines are that it does look like cases may have at least begun to peak there, although there is always the risk of a false dawn. Before we get too excited, it is worth remembering two things. First that South Africa may not offer a… Continue reading COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

How likely is the worst case scenario?

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There’s been much social media discussion about this article from Fraser Nelson in the Spectator reporting a conversation he had with Prof Graham Medley the chair of SAGE. In the conversation, Medley indicates that SAGE tends to model the worst case scnarios because those are the ones that if they turn out to be true… Continue reading How likely is the worst case scenario?

We choose our inconveniences

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I saw this tweet recently and I think it highlights something about human nature. It is terribly inconvenient isn’t it to have to queue for things and then to wait around afterwards. It’s annoying when we have to travel a distance. Yet here we are not just with the inconvenience of queues but also of… Continue reading We choose our inconveniences