The beginning of the Conservative campaign has been confusing to say the least. I’ve mentioned before the bizarreness of the decision to opt for an evening announcement in a deluge. It’s not just that the Prime Minister could have opted for an indoor press conference or had someone bring him an umbrella. It’s that he didn’t have to make the announcement on that day at that time. He could have looked at the weather forecast and chosen his timing accordingly. Either he has for forced into it by factors unknown to us, or it was deliberate or his campaign team are completely incompetent. Given their failure to protect him from other gaffes such as sitting under exit signs or visiting the Titanic quarter of Belfast, the latter is entirely possible.
However, some people have wondered about a form of intentionality. In 2005, Tony Blair seemed to deliberately draw the anger of the public in order to be seen to making atonement for perceived wrongs such as the Gulf War. Is Rishi following a similar course? In fact, he doesn’t so much have people letting out their anger now as laughing at his misfortunes and some are even beginning to feel sorry for him.
I began to consider the possibility that all of this, intentional or accidental might just work for Rishi. I don’t mean he might win the election, or even pull the Tories back close. However, maybe there is an accidental strategy there which might win back enough votes to put them safely in the low 30s and facing an ordinary landslide rather than complete, existential wipe-out. The optics would have been terrible and cost him the election potentially if things were close but with them this far behind, then perhaps he will benefit.
Then the national service proposals came out and it struck me that the Conservative campaign reminds me less of Blair in 2005 and more of someone else. Think Jeremy Corbyn, 2017, without the cult status and the large crowds to hear him speak. What I mean is that much of that campaign was chaotic and amateur. The manifesto was even leaked in advance of its launch but all of that worked and even ended up working far better than anyone expected. Why? Well first, it got our attention and we began to hear the message. What Corbyn’s team them made sure was that the message wasn’t full blooded radical socialism but a scatter gun approach of throwing populist (from the left) policies at us. Of course none of it was funded. It didn’t really amount to a coherent philosophy or programme for government but there was something in there for everyone.
Then two things happened. First, Theresa May hit he own self destruct button with her announcement of a social care policy that would hit her own support base hard. Secondly, the anti-Conservative vote began to coalesce. I suspect that people beginning to consider voting Corbyn still expected, for the main part that the Tories would get a comfortable majority and probably didn’t mind too much. What they didn’t want was for her to run away with a landside majority she did not deserve.
If we see a few more announcements of populist right-wing policies over the next few weeks of the sort that might have political retail value amongst some but don’t indicate a serious platform for government, the kind we wouldn’t expect to be on offer from anyone seriously considering having to implement them, then the Rishi Corbyn strategy is on. Things to look out in the manifesto might include:
I’d be looking out for something around education along the lines of a return to grammar schools, eye watering tax cut promises and probably something big on law and order. They might even start moves to privatising the BBC, at least by ending the licence fee.
Whether or not it will work is another matter.
Faithroots 