The Bible Society have recently shared an encouraging report suggesting that the church has been growing in England and Wales since 2018. I think it will be helpful to dig a little deeper into the report and see what the detail is saying and I’m hoping to do that in a few articles post Easter. However, I wanted to share some initial reflections today and provide some suggestions or a hypothesis if you like for what we are seeing. First let’s pick up on the headlines.
Church attendance headline figures
Overall, church attendance has risen. In 2018, 8% of those surveyed said that they were Christians. By 2025, that had risen to 12%. This has primarily been driven by the 18-24 year old category, from 4-16%, the 25–34-year-olds category, again from 4£ to 13%, a small increase among those aged 35-44 from 5-8 % and those 65 plus from 14-19%. The 44-64 years bracket however saw a decline. Fascinatingly, for the first time, the number of men identifying as attending church is greater than the number of women.[1]
Revivals and Awakenings
It’s worth observing at this stage that we technically tend to use the word “Revival” to refer toa spiritual reviving of the church and where we see more people coming to Christ we talk about that as an awakening. Historically it seems to be possible to see revival without awakening but the latter depends on the former. This report seems to be hinting at a possible “quiet awakening.” This might fit with the argument that some of us have made that we saw in effect a quiet revival during COVID with Christians having more time for prayer, worship, Bible study and fellowship, all be it online. We did also pick up on people showing an interest in church with significant numbers watching Facebook services. My own view at the time was that we might start to see fruit from this over time though not to expect it to be immediate. If, 4 years on from the first lockdown we are beginning to see some of that fruit, then that’s positive.
The report also fits with what a lot of people have been reporting anecdotally. Post COVID, I did some dip check surveys via Twitter and frequently found that a good number of churches were reporting increased attendance. Our own experience is that our church has seen rapid post COVID growth. We haven’t seen many in the 18-24 year olds category and in fact might be bucking the trend among 44-64s. Initially that growth looked like reconfiguration as we saw a lot of people joining us who were already Christians. In the last year we have begun to see people coming in and connecting with us who were not attending church previously.
Some notes of caution
Because we want to see data like this and because it fits with what some of us are “feeling” and observing anecdotally, the temptation can be to embrace such a report without asking questions. I also recognise that there will be those at the other end of the spectrum who will dismiss it out of hand. This might include those who sadly continue to experience a struggling church situation. There are also, frankly, those who don’t want to hear good news because ina Jonah-esque manner they have been announcing doom seeing the church as having sold out, compromised to the world and COVID as a mark of God’s judgement. I think we need to find a middle ground where we treat the report seriously and look carefully and discerningly at it.
First of all there are questions we might want to check out concerning how the data is handled. We don’t have access to the raw data tables and whilst surveys can be very accurate at reflecting the wider picture, this does depend on how they have weighted the results. Ther ewill be a margin of error in the reporting. I’d like to know what that is and the confidence levels for reporting.
Secondly, the report is based on a survey and so it talks about those who identify as Christian and say that they attend church monthly. This is not the same as a report of actual church attendance numbers. Some of those reports, including from the Church of England have pointed to continuing decline. There are two possible factors to consider here. First, that the statement that someone attends church may reflect an aspirational desire. Secondly, and more positively, frequently in the past, people have been arguing that the decline in the church has been overstated because attendance figures were based on reports of Sunday worship at specific times of the year. However, attendance patterns may be changing with people attending at different times, evening, mid-week etc and fortnightly or monthly rather than weekly.[2]
Thirdly, it would be helpful to get some information about where people are geographically. I wonder if we will find regional differences and how the Gen Z data will compare between University and non University areas.
Fourthly, the report picks up on greater ethnic diversity which is a good thing in and of itself. However, I’d want to pay attention to the possibility that at least some of the increase reflects Christian immigration, especially into London. Again, that’s not a bad thing but its not the same as an awakening among the White English and Welsh.
Fifth, church attendance is not the same as conversion and we might also want to be guarded so long as regular attendance amounts to checking in occasionally, once a month. I would also want to know more about the types of services people attend. Back at Bearwood Chapel, pre 2020, we ran a monthly Messy Church. We had a substantial number of people coming along from all backgrounds and some may well have counted themselves as attending our church but it was very clear that they had not come to Christ.
Sixth, I don’t want to lose sight of my own age bracket. Whilst we are encouraged by signs of growth in other age brackets, we also want to aks questions about why the 44-6s are still reporting decline.
I am raising these cautions not to dampen spirits but to encourage realistic and serious engagement with the report. Even if there are questions we want to ask and even if things are not as big and positive as some are suggesting, there still is a lot to be encouraged by.
What might be happening?
Now, on one level, we might want to say that if the data is accurate, that what is happening is that many people are turning to God and that this is the work of the Holy Spirit. Some will be reluctant to see other factors at work and consider that in conflict with belief in the Holy Spirit. I don’t see a problem with the Holy Spirit using normal providence to accomplish his purposes.
So, here is one hypothesis, one factor that might be at work. I’m not saying that this is the only thing at work. That we are seeing Gen Z males showing an interest may well reflect a follow on from the impact of people like Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate. We probably prefer to talk about the former rather than the later but both have been having a significant influence on young men and challenging the presumptions of our present age. Now, one of the things observed in the 18th century was that moralistic teaching in the established church acted as a precursor to the Great Awakening. People found that they could not achieve what was expected of them under a heavy legalistic burden. Could wee be seeing the same among young men now?
Another factor may well be COVID itself. We have a generation who have experienced extreme isolation and are looking for connection. This will include those going away to University and those who were at University during lockdown and missed out on socialisation. It may also include people who increasingly work from home and therefore miss out on relational connection in the Workplace.
Conclusion I think that we should be encouraged by the report but we need to ask questions of it too. We also need to avoid complacency. Even if people are beginning to dip into church, there is still a long way to go if we are to make disciples of Jesus
[1] See The Quiet Revial Report, 16.
[2] Rebecca Chapman picks up on this in Evangelicals Now as well. A quiet UK revival? How can we respond? | Evangelicals Now
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