Last night Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Wagner (a Russian, private military organisation) announced that he had 25,000 combatants ready to march on Moscow. He claimed that this was not a coup but “a march for justice”, that his target was the heads of the Russian military. He denounced both strategy and tactics in terms of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and even went so far as to question the justifications given for it.
Today, the picture remains unclear. Progozhin claims to have taken control of military sites in Rostov on Don the base city for operations against Ukraine and moved on Voronezh, a city half way between Rostov and Moscow. Meanwhile, Russian military and FSB personnel have moved to tighten security in key cities, defending key buildings such as the Kremlin and tanks have been seen on the streets. Such scenes seem unimaginable to those of us living in western democracies.
Watching the news, I’m reminded of the Winston Churchill’s words
“Now, this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is perhaps the end of the beginning.”
Of course, events are unpredictable and if a week is a long time in politics, a weekend can be even longer if you are head of a fragile regime engaged in a questionable war. Who knows where we might be come Monday. However, the consensus seems to be that we are not about to see the imminent collapse of Putin’s regime or the end of the war in Ukraine. Although I’ve seen one or two people suggesting that Putin himself is engineering this crisis to give him cover for a withdrawal. Time will tell.
The main presumption behind why this is not the end for Putin seems to be that change in Russia tends to come through popular uprisings. However, there tend to be precursors to this as the elites become disillusioned and divided and this is what seems to be happening. Certainly, Progozhin is calculating that his key targets are currently weak, otherwise he would not have countenanced such a move.
So far, we haven’t seen any hint of this turning into a mass uprising. The people are not falling in behind Progozhin and nor yet do the armed forced seem to be turning against the regime. There are potentially two reasons for this. First, that Wagner are maybe not the kind of people that ordinary civilians want to get behind or get too close too. They may not be convinced that he has the strength to pull things off and they may also be thinking that if it comes to a choice between two mad authoritarian, blood thirsty men then you may be best sticking with the devil you know. Secondly, it probably suggests that the Russian people are not yet at the stage of turning against Putin. This doesn’t mean that they love him and that they are completely behind his actions but if we in the west assume that this is a suppressed people just waiting the opportunity to shake of their chains then we are being naïve.
And so, the uncertainty. It is possible that things could shift quickly over the weekend. Civilians seem to be ignoring warnings to stay at home and are coming out to witness and record events. A stray bullet in a crowd with tensions running high could trigger an uncontrollable reaction. Alternatively, the generals and the oligarchs may conclude having watched events that Putin is no longer useful to him and may pay him a visit with the proverbial vodka and revolver to tell him his time is up. Alternatively, Progozhin may find himself in the shoes of the Grand Old Duke of York who marched his men to the top of the hill only to march them down again. He may also find himself in the company of the young students who rise up in Les Miserable, alone and isolated. It is likely then that Putin will brutally suppress him and this at least in the short term may entrench his position.
We also have to be alert to the fact that Putin may begin to use this as evidence that the motherland is under threat and if he starts suggesting that this is with Ukrainian and Western support and involvement then this might be used to justify more extreme actions and escalation towards the use of nuclear weapons.
If Progozhin does succeed then this is not necessarily good news. This is not a choice between good guys and evil guys. Wagner’s reputation and track record as mercenaries around the world is awful They are party to genocide, torture and rape. Wagner were fully involved in the Ukraine conflict and happy with the justifications for it at the start when things were going well and the pay cheques were coming through on time.
Perhaps the worst-case scenario is for a large country like Russia to be plunged into turmoil, instability and civil war. A country remember that possesses the largest arsenal in the world of nuclear weapons.
So, what do we pray as we watch on? Well, first I think it is right that we give thanks for this reminder that Putin is not invincible. Scripture reminds us that earths empires rise and fall. They are all temporary. Whether this week, next summer or years down the line, in this life or the next, Vladimir Putin will face a reckoning.
Secondly, we keep praying for an end to the Ukraine War and a just peace. Alongside that, it is right to pray that Putin’s regime will come to an end and that he will be replaced by people who desire peace and seek what is good and right.
Thirdly, we pray for those caught up in the midst of this, from young conscripts to civilians that they will be kept safe and that violence and death will be minimalised. We pray especially for the well-being of our brothers and sisters in Christ both in Ukraine and Russia,
Finally, we pray that our brothers and sisters will have courage to speak and live for Christ in the circumstances they find themselves in. We pray that there will be gospel opportunities in this crisis and that God will be glorified.
Faithroots 