The recent Israeli-Hamas war has again raised the question about whether a true and lasting peace in the region is possible. There are two elements to the question right now. First of all, Israel’s objective in this current conflict is the elimination of Hamas with the hope that this will enable her citizens to live in peace and security. The question is whether or not the current strategy will be effective in removing the terror threat. The second part of the question is whether or not it is possible to find a long term answer to the Palestinian question. Is it possible for Israelis and Palestinians to live side by side, peacefully.
Taking the first question, I am sceptical about the prospect of the current military strategy succeeding. Here’s why. First of all, it is difficult for Israel to eliminate Hamas because its members, especially the leaders are able to simply disperse and disappear whenever attacked. That’s part of the complexity of fighting an enemy embedded in densely populated urban areas. The IDF, rightly, send out warnings before military strikes and encourage civilians to evacuate areas they are about to target. However, that gives Hamas time to disperse and hide too. It is no surprise that if command centres existed underneath the Al-Shifa hospital that these had disappeared by the time the IDF gained access to the tunnels nearly two months after the 7th October atrocity. Secondly, the highest levels of Hamas leadership are probably not in Gaza but overseas supported by other states. Thirdly, the risk has always been that a campaign like this will create new martyrs and new rallying points for those who want to fuel future revenge. The last month has probably provided fertile recruiting ground for Hamas. Fourthly, Hamas are not the only enemy Israel faces, there is also Hezbollah to the north.
I suspect that Israel’s true objective is a little more modest. The aim is to destroy the Hamas infrastructure and make it difficult for the terrorists to reorganise in Gaza. This may be achievable. However, to truly remove Hamas will require something more substantial. First, external support needs to be cut off. At some point we need to address the problem of Iran’s malign influence in the region. Iran has no interest in seeing peace between Israel and Palestine.
Secondly, there has to be a political solution which is more appetising to young Palestinians than what Hamas has to offer. This is comparable to what happened in Northern Ireland in the late 1990s. There, the IRA’s support networks were cut off meaning that they realised that they were fighting a losing battle but also, first John Major and then Tony Blair sought ways to make the democratic process more appealing than terrorism.
This means that we need to return to the question of a Two State solution. Some have argued that this seems no longer possible. It is true that the possibility seems further off today than ever, however without it, I cannot see a way to lasting peace.
I think that the way forward is to find a starting point and so I would focus on the West Bank. This would mean making serious efforts to establish a truly functioning Palestinian authority there with Israel completely withdrawing from the occupied territories. One possibility is that the West Bank comes under the jurisdiction of Jordan either as a temporary or maybe even a permanent solution.
This would leave the question of what happens to the settlers who have developed homesteads on the West Bank. It is important to recognise that the presence of the settlements is itself a cause of tension. My view is that the settlers have two choices. They can either chose to live in Israel, in which case, they should return to the other side of the border or they can chose to remain on the Palestinian side but they would have to recognise that they were choosing citizenship of a different country.
If Jewish settlers were to remain in the new Palestine, then there would need to guarantees of their human-rights including religious freedom and full participation in democracy for them to remain, just as Arabs, including Palestinian Arabs, Muslims and Christians as well as Jews should have equal rights when living in Israel.
If such a model is possible, then that might help us to think about Gaza. This is the controversial part. I suspect that Israel will always feel uneasy if sandwiched between two parts of Palestine. One radical option may be for the Gaza strip to be brought fully into Israel, possibly with other land swapped in return, this would ensure two sustainable entities.
As with the West Bank, Jewish settlers, Gaza-strip Palestinians would then have a choice. They could either opt to move to the new Palestine or they could remain under Israeli jurisdiction. It would be important that Israel guaranteed full and equal democratic as well as religious rights and freedoms to Palestinian Arabs.
Finally, I note that the original UN settlement proposed economic union between the two states. One way to help foster peace is for Israelis and Palestinians to see a shared interest in their mutual peace and prosperity. Perhaps a “Middle East Union” fostering co-operation and free trade between Israel, Palestine, Jordan and potentially others such as Egypt and Lebanon would help to develop this. Such a Union would potentially include a trade treaty but might also include a Human Rights treaty too, similar to the ECHR.
I don’t know if any of this is possible but someone has got to at least try.
Faithroots 