So, what are we meant to make of that? It’s the start of week two of the General Election campaign and Nigel Farage has gone from insisting that he would not stand for Parliament this time round to not only standing in Clacton but being appointed leader of his party, Reform UK at an “emergency press conference.”
It’s not normal for parties to change leaders mid campaign but there again, Reform are not a normal political party and these are not normal times. So, what has happened? There are really three possibilities here and to be honest none of them put Reform or Farage in a good light, no matter what his cheer leaders in the press might be claiming.
- It is possible that this was a genuine emergency press conference. Now, a dull Election is not an emergency and Farage has in effect contradicted himself by also telling journalists that he detected a buzz, especially among younger voters. However, Farage alluded to the fact that Richard Tice, the former party leader, despite attempting to channel his inner Farage did not have the same name recognition or cut through with the public. So, it could be that suggestions that Reform had passed their peak and gone into decline are correct. It may be that their own private polling was showing them leaking voters back to the Tories following the National Service and Triple Lock Plus announcements or that others were moving directly to Labour. It is also possible that they were having trouble finding enough candidates to stand and risked losing face. Their predecessors “The Brexit Party” liked to give the impression that they were doing Boris Johnson a favour by standing down in many places in 2019 but I suspect that this weas more about realism than altruism. It was a face saving exercise. But it is now or never for Farage and Reform if they want to reshape the right. If the Tories avoid wipe out, even if Labour get a record breaking landslide and even if it takes two or three parliaments to come back then they will. Reform need that Canada moment to make a difference.
- Alternatively, it is possible that things are going worse for the Tories and better for Reform than we had assumed. Perhaps the worst polls for Rishi Sunak are the most credible. We should not just assume that the true polling figure lies somewhere in the middle of the range. That’s what polling aggregates do, they average out the numbers, so the Tories are seen to be polling between 19-29% and it’s assumed that this puts them around 23-24%. However, if the polls at either end are faulty then the range may be wrong. Given that the margin of error even for the most accurate polls means that they could still be a couple of percent out. It is possible that if the methodology is wrong for the better polls then they are polling at anywhere between 26-32 percent. Meanwhile, if the better polls are wrong, then the Tories could be as low as 16% with Reform running them close or even ahead. This means two things, first that this is the moment when Reform need to capitalise and take seats, otherwise they will find themselves in the same situation as UKIP previously or the SDP/Liberal Alliance in 1983. The Tories will survive and Reform will disappear. So this might be their best chance to get some seats. But it also means that Farage was at risk too. If Reform broke through then it would be the leader who took the plaudits and Farage would be yesterday’s man. Perhaps Farage simply wanted a piece of the action, not to be forgotten, to make his mark. He does not want to become irrelevant and arguably he would be. In other words, the emergency is for Farage personally.
- It’s possible that this was always the plan, a double bluff, another way of grabbing attention in the campaign. An artificial surprise to make the campaign more exciting. Despite playing the “ordinary, bloke” role, Farage in reality is a long term, career politician. He enjoys the game.
Like I said, none of these options put Reform UK or Nigel Farage in a positive light. This reflects the reality that I suspect a lot of people don’t realise, especially those who are likely to vote for Reform. Despite being a political party that contests elections, Reform UK is nothing like other parties. It is a private company. This should have been made overtly clear today. It would not be possible with any of the other parties for one man or woman to simply say “I’ve decided to be leader” without the party membership having a say.
So, what we really have is something that appears to be a political party, participating in democratic elections but in reality is the personal play thing of one man. Now, I’m very cautious about making specific comments on particular political parties as a church leader. However, I do think it is important for us to recognise when there is something deeply unhealthy going on. If you are toying with supporting Reform, then this should be a wake up call. It is Nigel Farage who has treated democracy with contempt and therefore even his own supporters.
Faithroots 