What about those who do not vote?

I’m planning to include a few articles here about voting and elections, given this is a big year for such things with an American Presidential Election and a General Election in the UK coming up. The recent by-election in Rochdale saw George Galloway win on 39% of the vote.  However, not only was this a minority of the actual votes cast but with turnout at around 40%, it means that Galloway represents a constituency where less than 20% of those eligible to vote chose to vote for him.  The majority of people simple stayed at home.

Now, over the years, I’ve seen frequent attempts by people to use such maths to argue against the legitimacy of various governments and individual politicians.  The argument runs that in fact 80% of votes did not want the given party/politician elected. However, this logic requires double standards. If we can only say for certain that the 20% of people who voted for Galloway wanted him as their MP, then we can only say for certain that the 20% who voted for other candidates would have preferred a different outcome. Indeed it is possible that although Galloway wasn’t their first choice that some would have been contented with him to win as their second or third preference.

So, unless we do something like make elections compulsory as they are in some countries, then I think we have to assume that those who turn out to vote are representative of the wider views present. Certainly, by not voting, the 60% may have indicated that they didn’t care enough for Galloway to vote for him but nor were they motivated enough to turn out and vote against him. They in effect allowed others to make a decision on their behalf.

Furthermore, opinion polls have tended to show that the views and values held by those who turn out to vote are not disproportionately dissimilar to the wider public.  I know that there is a myth going around that everyone lies to the pollsters and polls vannot be trusted but actually, polls have been fairly good at giving us the big picture and general trends over the long term.  You may get false recall and shy Tories but most pollsters have tended to find ways to account for those issues and even if they may not get an election result exactly right from time to time because they over estimate the vote for one party and underestimate another, they are not usually that far out in terms of the support for parties.  So, for example, do I think that the next General Election will result in a complete Tory wipe out down to a handful of seats because polls at this stage suggest Labour are in the mid forties and the Tories in the mid 20s.  I expect some element of mini-recovery from the Conservatives nearer to an actual General Election and many people who say they will vote Reform UK are likely to find that the protest party isn’t fielding candidates everywhere. However, I doubt that the Conservatives are going to come anywhere close to retaining power or even denying Labour a majority.

I would add in a further factor and its this.  Observers at a distance may have been shocked by the result in Rochdale where very few people voted for the main parties. However, I don’t get the impression that people on the ground there and in similar contexts were surprised by the level of alienation from the mainstream, nor by the strong views on Israel and Gaza that Galloway capitalised on. 

So, whilst I don’t think that the size of a Government’s majority in a FPTP system always represents public opinion, I think that you can get a feel for the overall mood of a country based on the numbers of votes for parties and by turnout, which itself indicates engagement versus alienation and apathy.

Now, unlike a lot of people, I’m entirely relaxed about whether or not people do turnout and vote. I don’t think you are under a moral obligation to vote. I think it is the responsibility of candidates to persuade and demonstrate that they are worthy of your vote. Whilst Christians are to be good citizens in terms of submission to and prayer for the authorities, Scripture doesn’t have anything to say (for obvious reasons) about a responsibility to actively participate in the choosing and appointment of those in authority.

What I will say is this.  If you do want to make a point, to state clearly that you are not happy with any of the candidates, that you are refusing the choice put in front of you, then staying at home will not do the trick.   I would prefer there to be a “None of the above” or “re-open nominations” option on the ballot paper but there isn’t in the UK. Therefore, if you wish to express your dissatisfaction with the choice -and there have been times when that has been reasonable, then the best option open to you is to spoil your paper.