COVID update – post half-term

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English schools are beginning to return from the half-term break so this would be a good opportunity to have a look at the current data. We might expect some of the reduction in case numbers last week to have been a result of reduced testing during the holidays.

Certainly we have seen an increase in the UK wide reported cases (remember this is by day recorded so will include cases from throughout last week).

However, those case numbers have been substantially affected by catch up in Welsh case reporting

English, Scottish and Northern Irish reporting continued to plot falls in reported cases

However,note from the next two graphs that the rate of decrease in English cases is slowing

It remains my expectation that we may see further increases in case numbers from later in this week in England and that this will affect the overall UK numbers. However if we are approaching HIT (Herd Immunity Threshold) in under 15s then we may expect any increases this week and next to be reversed through the latter half of November and on in to December.

Meanwhile here is the latest information on hospital admissions

.., and mortality

Meanwhile admission to case ratio continues to hover at between 2% and 2.5%

Whilst deaths as a percentage of cases 28 days previously and of admissions 2 weeks previously looks as follows:

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