COVID update

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Here’s a quick update on where we are on UK COVID data as England prepares for the final lifting of all restrictions. Note that there will still be guidance in place and that Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have different regulations and guidance in place. I’ve stopped providing regular reporting of case data but as… Continue reading COVID update

COVID update 03/02/2022

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Through the last year or so, I’ve been tracking the COVID19 data for the UK. My aim in reporting this has been to try and help church leaders with decision making around risk management. There have been three aspects to our risk management decisions. First of all, there is the objective and immediate risk of… Continue reading COVID update 03/02/2022

COVID update 28/01/2022

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Here’s the latest COVID data update. First of all cases: As you can see, following a little bump, cases are once again on a downward trajectory, albeit at a slower pace. Remember that this means that COVID has been sitting at a much higher community prevalence since Omicron and this remains the case. However, we… Continue reading COVID update 28/01/2022

COVID-19 update”after plan B”

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Today sees the lifting of the additional COVID measures brought in for England in response to Omicron. Scotland has also seen some restrictions around events and gatherings lifted this week. The big change in England is the removal of the face mask requirement for indoor venues. Last week I updated my risk management assessment and… Continue reading COVID-19 update”after plan B”

COVID-19 risk management update for churches

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With Boris Johnson announcing an end to the “plan-B” measures for England from next Thursday, I thought it might be worth giving a little bit of an update on risk management for England. Unfortunately, this has to be very country specific as the changes will not apply to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, Here is… Continue reading COVID-19 risk management update for churches

COVID19 update 11/01/2022

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We’re into the second week after the New Year and so now is probably a good time to have a look at the detailed COVID data Cases Over the past few days we’ve seen a steady fall in the average reported new cases. It does look like cases have peaked. The rolling average of new… Continue reading COVID19 update 11/01/2022

COVID update for church risk management 05-01-2022

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Here we are with our first Risk Management update of 2022. I’ve updated my model assessment as follows: As you can see, I’ve reduced the risk probabilities in most cases suggesting that we are past the point of highest risk. There are two reasons for that. First, because there was a strong indication from Boris… Continue reading COVID update for church risk management 05-01-2022

The danger of an overactive hindsight

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Remember back in July when the Government announced that England was coming out of the final stages of lockdown without any further mitigations. There were a whole host of people lining up to denounce the unethical recklessness of this.  We were given apocalyptic warnings of England being a plague nation with the hospitals jam packed… Continue reading The danger of an overactive hindsight

Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

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I wanted to try and visualise the challenge facing decision makers over the next few days/weeks as the Government attempts to decide what to do about the Omicron variant if anything. I thought the best way to do it might be to give you a simplified model. This isn’t as high powered as the types… Continue reading Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

COVID and Omicron – what’s the mood?

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Yesterday I ran one of my little surveys via twitter. Remember, these are not intended to give is a scientific analysis of the exact proportions of people that hold specific positions. Rather, they operate like a kind of focus group or dip check. That’s not a high number of votes and I expect proportions would… Continue reading COVID and Omicron – what’s the mood?