COVID19 update 11/01/2022

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We’re into the second week after the New Year and so now is probably a good time to have a look at the detailed COVID data Cases Over the past few days we’ve seen a steady fall in the average reported new cases. It does look like cases have peaked. The rolling average of new… Continue reading COVID19 update 11/01/2022

Have COVID interventions worked -more on difficult decisions in uncertainty

Were the Government reckless in failing to bring in additional COVID measures for England over the Christmas and the New Year period? Or did Scotland and Wales jump the gun with pointless measures that haven’t worked, were never going to and weren’t necessary anyway? A lot of people think so and hold their views very… Continue reading Have COVID interventions worked -more on difficult decisions in uncertainty

COVID update for church risk management 05-01-2022

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Here we are with our first Risk Management update of 2022. I’ve updated my model assessment as follows: As you can see, I’ve reduced the risk probabilities in most cases suggesting that we are past the point of highest risk. There are two reasons for that. First, because there was a strong indication from Boris… Continue reading COVID update for church risk management 05-01-2022

COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

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I’ve argued in recent posts that the Christmas period would leave us a little blind as to what is happening in terms of the Omicron variant.  The optimist in me saw some signs both from the data here and what we’d seen happen in South Africa that the wave might be slowing down going into… Continue reading COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

COVID and church risk management update (31/12/2021)

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We go into 2022 with COVID cases high primarily as a result of the new Omicron variant. Case numbers recorded daily have been at eye watering levels with records broken daily. Currently the expectation is that cases will peak sometime in January but at exactly what level we cannot be certain yet, although it does… Continue reading COVID and church risk management update (31/12/2021)

Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

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I wanted to try and visualise the challenge facing decision makers over the next few days/weeks as the Government attempts to decide what to do about the Omicron variant if anything. I thought the best way to do it might be to give you a simplified model. This isn’t as high powered as the types… Continue reading Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

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I’ve been following the cases in South Africa and the headlines are that it does look like cases may have at least begun to peak there, although there is always the risk of a false dawn. Before we get too excited, it is worth remembering two things. First that South Africa may not offer a… Continue reading COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

COVID and Omicron – what’s the mood?

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Yesterday I ran one of my little surveys via twitter. Remember, these are not intended to give is a scientific analysis of the exact proportions of people that hold specific positions. Rather, they operate like a kind of focus group or dip check. That’s not a high number of votes and I expect proportions would… Continue reading COVID and Omicron – what’s the mood?

Omicron and “Plan C” – how’s it going?

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Yesterday morning, I wrote about talk of a Plan C against COVID this winter. My view was that the Government would feel under significant pressure to implement this plan over the next few days.  I had always suspected that we’d be hearing very soon from the Prime Minister again and so it turned out with… Continue reading Omicron and “Plan C” – how’s it going?

COVID19 update – will we need plan c?

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One of the concerns I’ve raised over the past week or two is that we now seem to be on a trajectory towards even stricter COVID19 restrictions in England and presumably then across the United Kingdom. My concern is two-fold. The first is that such measures might become urgently necessary because I’m not convinced that… Continue reading COVID19 update – will we need plan c?