We’re into the second week after the New Year and so now is probably a good time to have a look at the detailed COVID data Cases Over the past few days we’ve seen a steady fall in the average reported new cases. It does look like cases have peaked. The rolling average of new… Continue reading COVID19 update 11/01/2022
I wanted to try and visualise the challenge facing decision makers over the next few days/weeks as the Government attempts to decide what to do about the Omicron variant if anything. I thought the best way to do it might be to give you a simplified model. This isn’t as high powered as the types… Continue reading Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case
There’s been much social media discussion about this article from Fraser Nelson in the Spectator reporting a conversation he had with Prof Graham Medley the chair of SAGE. In the conversation, Medley indicates that SAGE tends to model the worst case scnarios because those are the ones that if they turn out to be true… Continue reading How likely is the worst case scenario?
This is one of my regular appeals for us to work harder at understanding the Pandemic and to be slower to jump to tribal political responses of either panic or complacency. This week it was announced that the UK now topped the list as the worst hit country for deaths per million. This led to… Continue reading Coronavirus and what the data is telling us