What might 2022 have in store for us?

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Here are some predictions about what the New Year might have in store for us.  I’m not saying these will all definitely happen but it might be interesting to look back at the end of the year and see how many I did get right. COVID19 I expect this year to be when the pandemic… Continue reading What might 2022 have in store for us?

How likely is the worst case scenario?

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There’s been much social media discussion about this article from Fraser Nelson in the Spectator reporting a conversation he had with Prof Graham Medley the chair of SAGE. In the conversation, Medley indicates that SAGE tends to model the worst case scnarios because those are the ones that if they turn out to be true… Continue reading How likely is the worst case scenario?

“I’ll wait for Survation”

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Survation famously got their 2017 General Election prediction pretty near right when all the other pollsters floundered. So in 2019, when nearly every pollster was calling it for the Conservatives as a clear win, a frequent refrain from those rooting for Jeremy Corbyn was “I’ll wait for Survation”. The hope and belief was that once… Continue reading “I’ll wait for Survation”