After 18 consecutive days of falling case numbers, we’ve now had two days of increases in reported cases.
It’s worth remembering that people who have been following the numbers were projecting further case growth after the return from Half Term. I stated here a few weeks ago that I wouldn’t be surprised to see some case growth in the two or weeks following the holidays. That’s primarily because whilst the reductions are genuine (as evidence by impact on hospital admissions) and not just a product of reduced testing (though this will have contributed), the reductino in social contact for under 15s will have been a factor. Those social contacts will be increasing again.
However, I’m still working on the assumption that with over 75% of those under 15s having already been infected by COVID pre-half term and the vaccination programme picking up that we will see a generational HIT (Herd Immunity crossed). This along with booster jabs should hopefully combine to dampen infections going into December.
This is what the case growth looks like in terms of the rolling average.
And this is what it looks like week day to weekday
It also remains my view that the combination of vaccinations, self-isolation protocols and voluntary behavioural adjustment puts a cap on the amount of growth that we can see in any given time. In other words we are now able to effectively flatten the peaks. You’ll see that we’ve not had growth rates over 50% since early September and growth is rarely over 20% when cases are increasing. I suspect that this builds in protection so that daily case numbers at 50,000 or above are extremely unlikely.
As I said above, for those questioning whether or not the fall in cases we saw over the past few weeks was real, the answer is in the hospital admission numbers. These have been falling consistently since the 1/11 from a high of 1034 to an average of 914 on the 8th November.
The admissions to cases ratio continues to look good.
The number of deaths reported daily has also fallen recently
Here’s a look at projections going forward. For admissions, remember that the lower line seems to be the one we have been tracking recently.
Meanwhile, this is what the projection for mortality looks like
Again, I would expect projection to be closer to the lower line. What this also means is that we are looking at 140-160 deaths per day going into mid December. If cases do come down during late November and into December then things may improve further into Christmas and the New Year.