Why predicting the future is a risky business

A friend of my was teasing me the other day that my predictions about Ukraine not turning out to be very good.  He was referring to my argument here that if Russia’s aim was to strengthen its position on the international stage, become the primary regional player in Eastern Europe/Central Asia and push back western/NATO… Continue reading Why predicting the future is a risky business

Don’t be presumptuous about the future

Do you know what today is the anniversary of? It’s probably not a biggy in most people’s calendars but today marks the anniversary of John Major’s return to Downing Street having narrowly won the 1992 General Election contested on the 9th April.  It was an election he was expected to lose and even up until… Continue reading Don’t be presumptuous about the future