Category: Opinion

COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

I’ve argued in recent posts that the Christmas period would leave us a little blind as to what is happening in terms of the Omicron variant.  The optimist in me saw some signs both from the data here and what we’d seen happen in South Africa that the wave might be slowing down going into… Continue reading COVID-19 update – brace yourself for a tense week

What might 2022 have in store for us?

Here are some predictions about what the New Year might have in store for us.  I’m not saying these will all definitely happen but it might be interesting to look back at the end of the year and see how many I did get right. COVID19 I expect this year to be when the pandemic… Continue reading What might 2022 have in store for us?

Who’s engaging

One of the things I’ve done throughout COVID is run occasional snap polls on twitter to gage the views of those who tend to interact with me and faithroots on social media. I frequently give a health warning that the results are not representative. The reason for this is that a twitter audience doesn’t necessarily… Continue reading Who’s engaging

Why we should focus on NHS surge capacity not new restrictions

When we became alert to the new Omicron variant, I argued that our immediate focus should not be on attempting to impose new restrictions. This was not because I didn’t think that the new variant definitely wouldn’t be a significant problem for us.  At that time, we had little data to go on at all.… Continue reading Why we should focus on NHS surge capacity not new restrictions

Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

I wanted to try and visualise the challenge facing decision makers over the next few days/weeks as the Government attempts to decide what to do about the Omicron variant if anything. I thought the best way to do it might be to give you a simplified model. This isn’t as high powered as the types… Continue reading Omicron -scenarios and planning for worst case/best case

Just in from Nineveh …

Reading this article by Fraser Nelson about his conversation with a SAGE advisor and seeing responses like the one below reminded me of a recent discovery. Archaeologists in Nineveh came across a stone tablet reporting events following Jonah’s visit to the City. The text says: One sceptical wise man went out of the city to… Continue reading Just in from Nineveh …

COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

I’ve been following the cases in South Africa and the headlines are that it does look like cases may have at least begun to peak there, although there is always the risk of a false dawn. Before we get too excited, it is worth remembering two things. First that South Africa may not offer a… Continue reading COVID update -Omicron optimist or pessimist?

How likely is the worst case scenario?

There’s been much social media discussion about this article from Fraser Nelson in the Spectator reporting a conversation he had with Prof Graham Medley the chair of SAGE. In the conversation, Medley indicates that SAGE tends to model the worst case scnarios because those are the ones that if they turn out to be true… Continue reading How likely is the worst case scenario?

Omicron and “Plan C” – how’s it going?

Yesterday morning, I wrote about talk of a Plan C against COVID this winter. My view was that the Government would feel under significant pressure to implement this plan over the next few days.  I had always suspected that we’d be hearing very soon from the Prime Minister again and so it turned out with… Continue reading Omicron and “Plan C” – how’s it going?